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Forecast Discussion: Current Conditions: As of 2 PM on Tuesday, partly cloudy skies prevail over the region as a ridge of high pressure remains in control of our weather. At the same time, a cold front continues to advance through the Ohio Valley. Right now, southwesterly flow over our area is helping to drive warm and moist air into western PA. Temperatures are hovering in the mid 80s. The combination of the warm and moist conditions are helping to drive PM 2.5 levels into the moderate range. In isolated areas, ozone concentrations are also beginning to approach the moderate category. Air quality levels are expected to stay elevated during the day tomorrow as a cold front continues to advance closer to our area. *** Wednesday's Forecast: So for Wednesday, expect partly sunny skies during the morning to give way to mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon as a cold front continues to slowly push east through the Ohio Valley. At the same time, an area of high pressure off the East Coast is expected to keep our winds out of the southwest. These southwesterly winds will continue to pump in warm, moist air into the region. It will also increase the likelihood of an afternoon shower / thunderstorm over our area. PM 2.5 will continue to be the lead pollutant thanks to the influx of warmth and moisture over our area. Ozone will stay confined to the upper good / low moderate range thanks to more afternoon clouds and a greater chance of an afternoon shower / thunderstorm. *** Extended Outlook: Over the coming days, expect to see the warm and moist conditions continue early on as a cold front continues to advance closer to the region. This cold front is slated to push through in the Thursday / Friday time frame. As it does, we will see our greatest threat of rain. After it pushes off to our east, expect to see cooler and drier conditions build in over the region. The main driver, an area of high pressure building in over the Midwest, will help to turn our winds out of the northwest, forcing the air to come out of Canada rather than the southeastern US. As a result, expect a rather pleasant holiday weekend to unfold over southwest PA. By the end of the weekend, temperatures will begin to rebound closer to normal. Sunny skies in combination with these warmer temperatures could force ozone into the moderate range, after spending much of the period in the good range. PM 2.5, on the other hand, will be rather content staying in the good category thanks to the drier conditions over the region. --Nolan |
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